working papers
Immigration and Firm-level Upgrading as Exports Boosters in Developing Countries - 2025
The influx of skilled labor from the Venezuelan exodus enabled Colombian manufacturing firms to upgrade capabilities and increase R&D, improving production and organizational processes and boosting trade performance.
With Carlo Lombardo
CESifo Working Paper
Under Review
We examine firm-level upgrading in Colombian manufacturing firms as a result of a high-skilled
labor supply shock triggered by the Venezuelan exodus. Using a unique and confidential dataset
from 2013 to 2019 and a shift-share instrumental variables approach, we find that the increased
supply of skilled workers primarily drove high-skill hires, especially in R&D divisions. This skill
upgrading process boosted investments in R&D activities. Improved access to higher-quality
inputs led to better production and organizational processes, product enhancements, and an
increased likelihood of obtaining quality certifications, which serve as a straightforward objective
measure of firm-level upgrading. Collectively, these changes were crucial for firms to increase
their exports at both the extensive and intensive margins. This effect was driven by a rise in
differentiated product exports, allowing firms to enter new and more sophisticated markets,
particularly in high- and upper-middle-income countries.
Overlapping Calendars: Colonial Legacies and the Consequences of Misaligned Timing Institutions - 2026
Misalignment between inherited timing institutions and local economic conditions reduces human capital accumulation and hinders economic development.
With Juan Muñoz-Morales and Abu Shonchoy
Working Paper
Submitted
We study the origins and economic consequences of conflicts between timing institutions—rules that set common schedules—and local economic activity. We focus on school–harvest conflicts by assembling a global dataset of countries’ school calendars and comparing them with the timing of harvesting. We document systematic calendar overlap, particularly in southern-latitude countries and former colonies. Instrumenting overlap with colonial variation in calendar timing, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in school–harvest overlap raises school dropout by 0.6–0.8 percentage points. Beyond colonial inheritance, similar timing conflicts can arise through domestic standardization when a uniform calendar is imposed despite local crop variation. We study this distinct channel using a Colombian reform that shifted public schools to a common national calendar, increasing overlap in some schools while reducing it in others. Using administrative census data covering the universe of rural public schools, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in school–harvest overlap raises the dropout rate by about 0.7 percentage points, while outcomes improve where overlap falls. Our estimates are robust across alternative estimators, control groups, clustering levels, and treatment definitions. Employing nationally representative Colombian household survey data, we find agricultural work among children rises in affected municipalities, consistent with a school–labor time-allocation mechanism. These findings identify institutional timing as an important determinant of human capital accumulation in agrarian economies.