working papers

Immigration and Firm-level Upgrading as Exports Boosters in Developing Countries - 2025

The influx of skilled labor from the Venezuelan exodus enabled Colombian manufacturing firms to upgrade capabilities and increase R&D, improving production and organizational processes and boosting trade performance.

With Carlo Lombardo

CESifo Working Paper
Under Review
We examine firm-level upgrading in Colombian manufacturing firms as a result of a high-skilled labor supply shock triggered by the Venezuelan exodus. Using a unique and confidential dataset from 2013 to 2019 and a shift-share instrumental variables approach, we find that the increased supply of skilled workers primarily drove high-skill hires, especially in R&D divisions. This skill upgrading process boosted investments in R&D activities. Improved access to higher-quality inputs led to better production and organizational processes, product enhancements, and an increased likelihood of obtaining quality certifications, which serve as a straightforward objective measure of firm-level upgrading. Collectively, these changes were crucial for firms to increase their exports at both the extensive and intensive margins. This effect was driven by a rise in differentiated product exports, allowing firms to enter new and more sophisticated markets, particularly in high- and upper-middle-income countries.

Overlapping Calendars: Colonial Legacies and the Consequences of Misaligned Timing Institutions - 2026

Misalignment between inherited timing institutions and local economic conditions reduces human capital accumulation and hinders economic development.

With Juan Muñoz-Morales and Abu Shonchoy

Working Paper
Submitted
We study the origins and economic consequences of conflicts between timing institutions—rules that set common schedules—and local economic activity. We focus on school–harvest conflicts by assembling a global dataset of countries’ school calendars and comparing them with the timing of harvesting. We document systematic calendar overlap, particularly in southern-latitude countries and former colonies. Instrumenting overlap with colonial variation in calendar timing, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in school–harvest overlap raises school dropout by 0.6–0.8 percentage points. Beyond colonial inheritance, similar timing conflicts can arise through domestic standardization when a uniform calendar is imposed despite local crop variation. We study this distinct channel using a Colombian reform that shifted public schools to a common national calendar, increasing overlap in some schools while reducing it in others. Using administrative census data covering the universe of rural public schools, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in school–harvest overlap raises the dropout rate by about 0.7 percentage points, while outcomes improve where overlap falls. Our estimates are robust across alternative estimators, control groups, clustering levels, and treatment definitions. Employing nationally representative Colombian household survey data, we find agricultural work among children rises in affected municipalities, consistent with a school–labor time-allocation mechanism. These findings identify institutional timing as an important determinant of human capital accumulation in agrarian economies.

Public Externalities of Universal Health Care Access - 2026

Colombia's 2021 amnesty gave nearly two million undocumented Venezuelan migrants full access to the public health system. We demonstrate that this saved Colombian lives: by insuring migrants, they moved their care out of crowded emergency rooms and into the regularly financed system that everyone shares. Covering the excluded turns out to protect the already-included.

With Tatiana Hiller and Sandra Rozo

World Bank Working Paper
Does extending full health coverage to an excluded group induce health externalities for the population already insured? In 2022 Colombia expanded health services from emergency only to full access to approximately two million Venezuelan migrants. Comparing municipalities more and less exposed to program take-up before and after its onset, this paper finds that the program reduced mortality rates for Colombians, saving one Colombian life for each 300 migrants covered. The effects are explained by a more efficient use of the health services by beneficiaries and regular and timely payments for the newly insured patients. The Colombian deaths saved are those that timely health treatment prevents. The net fiscal cost of the program is USD 93,000 per Colombian life saved, well below the value of a statistical life.

Gender Gaps: International Evidence on the Role of Family Policy - 2026

Gender gaps have narrowed across developed countries since the 1980s, but the United States has fallen behind. We show that family policy is an important part of the reason. Across 27 countries, expansions in parental leave, childcare, and part-time protections account for up to three-quarters of the decline in child penalties, while slower policy expansion in the United States helps explain its slower progress. The motherhood penalty is not just a feature of the labor market. It is shaped by policy.

With Francine Blau, Lawrence Kahn, Freddy Bachmann, Helen Burkhardt, and David Titus

NBER Working Paper
Submitted
We use Luxembourg Income Study and International Social Survey Programme microdata on 27 countries over the 1986-2019 period, augmented by policy and labor market information, to estimate the impact of family-friendly policies on gender gaps in employment, wages, earnings, and part-time work, as well as child penalties in employment and earnings. We find that longer duration of parental leave generally lowers gender gaps in wages, employment, earnings, and child penalties in employment and earnings, except for high levels of this entitlement, where further increases in leave raise gender gaps. We also find that the right to request a part-time work schedule raises relative female part-time employment but lowers employment and earnings gender gaps. Higher government expenditures for childcare lower employment, earnings, and part-time employment gender gaps as well as child employment and earnings penalties. These results are generally stronger for the less educated than for the highly educated, possibly reflecting higher costs of taking time off for highly educated women. Finally, expansion of family-friendly policies over this period can account for 24-33% of our sample’s reduction in gender gaps in employment and earnings and 46-76% of the reduction in child penalties in these outcomes. The slower expansion of such policies in the United States than elsewhere accounts for 6-15% of the slower reduction in US gender employment and earnings gaps and 20% of the slower fall in the US child employment penalty.