working papers
Skilled Immigration and Firm-level Upgrading as Exports Boosters in a Developing Country- 2025
The influx of skilled labor from the Venezuelan exodus enabled Colombian manufacturing firms to upgrade capabilities and increase R&D, improving production and organizational processes and boosting trade performance.
With Carlo Lombardo
CESifo Working Paper
We examine firm-level upgrading in Colombian manufacturing firms as a result of a high-skilled
labor supply shock triggered by the Venezuelan exodus. Using a unique and confidential dataset
from 2013 to 2019 and a shift-share instrumental variables approach, we find that the increased
supply of skilled workers primarily drove high-skill hires, especially in R&D divisions. This skill
upgrading process boosted investments in R&D activities. Improved access to higher-quality
inputs led to better production and organizational processes, product enhancements, and an
increased likelihood of obtaining quality certifications, which serve as a straightforward objective
measure of firm-level upgrading. Collectively, these changes were crucial for firms to increase
their exports at both the extensive and intensive margins. This effect was driven by a rise in
differentiated product exports, allowing firms to enter new and more sophisticated markets,
particularly in high- and upper-middle-income countries.
Is Drug-Related Violence Fueling Emigration from Central America?- 2025
Drug-related violence in Central American countries significantly increases individuals' intentions, plans, and preparations to migrate to the United States.
With Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Jessica Bracco, and Andrés Ham
IZA Working Paper
Revise and Resubmit - Journal of Development Economics
We examine how drug-related violence influences emigration choices in Central America, a region that has experienced a sharp increase in migration to the United States. Combining multiple data sources, we leverage an instrumental variables strategy that exploits local variation in proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. Our results show that rising violence increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate, particularly to the United States. Mediation analysis suggest that these migration responses are mainly driven by declining economic activity and worsening labor-market conditions in Central America. The effects are strongest among young and higher-skilled individuals.